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Home » Research » India saw positive growth in August & September onwards: Laqshya Media Group report
India saw positive growth in August & September onwards: Laqshya Media Group report

By M4G Bureau - October 19, 2020

The highest monthly GST collection since the beginning of the lockdown was in September and monthly tax revenue for August crossed the tax revenue of the same month last year

Laqshya Media Group’s recent report ‘The Great Economic Reboot for India in 2020’ talks about how India shows resilience even in the face of great calamity.

The Indian economy saw positive growth in the months of August and September onwards. The highest monthly GST collection since the beginning of the lockdown was in September (INR 95,480 crores), which was 4% higher than in the same month last year and 10.4% higher than August. The monthly tax revenue for August 2020 crossed the tax revenue of August 2019, the first time this has happened in 2020.

The total tax revenues of the government have been steadily climbing from 30% in April and May to nearly 70% of year to date (YTD) 2019 by August, touching INR 2.84 lakh crores YTD in 2020. The sales of passenger vehicles have improved by 35% since last year’s and 37% since previous months. 13% more vehicles were dispatched In September as compared to the same time last year. According to Retailers Association of India’s last business survey report, the retail market has been improving at a steady pace compared to the same time last year. UPI transactions are up: the growth rate of digital payments volume is predicted to be 37% by 2022, surpassing expectation of 31%.

Federation of Automobile Dealers Association of India (FADA) also reported continued good sales for passenger vehicles and tractors. Passenger vehicles surpassed last year’s sales in September.

Nielsen India reported that FMCG sales have returned to almost normal post-lockdown because of the rural market. According to IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), manufacturing activity finally showed growth after a 4-month long contraction and September readings surpassed January 2020 due to increased orders and production. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) finally turned positive in August by 0.16% for the first time since March as compared to the previous year, same time. A rise in CPI since April suggests growth in the same. The lowest it was this year was in March (147.8) and the highest so far being August (154.7).

The core agricultural sector recorded a positive growth in the first quarter of this financial year at 3.4% GVA. Food grain production for 2020-21 is targeted at 6.35 million tonnes, higher than the previous year’s total food production.

Average lead data for India’s freight traffic was reported at 557 km in August 2020. Net Tonne Kilometers data for India’s freight traffic was 52,688 km mn in August 2020. Delhi airport showed a good rise with 13,200 flights in September. There were 9790 and 6550 flights in Bangalore and Hyderabad, respectively. Correspondingly, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell recorded a recovery in the market demand for petroleum products. The rise in demand is seen for coal and power supply as well.

According to the data given by the controller general of accounts, Ministry of Finance, against the budgeted loan disbursement of INR 31,763 crore, INR 15,178 crores have been disbursed. There was an overall credit disbursement coming up to INR 1,13,713.15 crore into 24,70,312 MSME accounts, by 24 private banks, 31 non-banking financial companies, and 12 public sector banks. INR 62,025.79 crore into 21,28,010 MSME accounts being of public sector banks and INR 51,687.36 crore into 3,42,302 MSMEs by share of private banks and NBFCs.

The report by BetterPlace says that the demand for Blue Collar workers which was at its lowest during May is slowly returning back to normal. While Tier 2 & 3 cities like Gurgaon, Noida, Hyderabad and Pune are out of stress, cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata, Delhi and Mumbai are still under stress with 70-80% back to normal work force demands.

“Indian economy has weathered many a storm time and again and each time has emerged victorious from the turbulence with great resoluteness. The affirmative nature of this emergence is what makes us have faith in the Indian economy and its future. This report is a proof of how India is fighting one of the greatest economic setbacks since independence and is slowly but steadily recovering ground. Given the positive indicators so far, we do hope that the pace towards a near total recovery of the economy will only accelerate,” said Sai Nagesh, Chief Strategy Officer, Laqshya Media Group.

 

 

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